Friday, November 4, 2011

The Hot Stove season is upon us. It's typically the time large market teams fill their cupboards with high priced superstars while mid to small market teams scramble to add a player or two "at the right price."

This year's group of free agents is probably the thinnest in years. Yet, at the top, there are still a couple of big names. Those big names, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, are two of the best hitters in baseball to be sure. You might even add Big Papi to the mix. What there isn't though is pitching. There's a great vacuum where high priced free agent aces would normally reside.

The best pitching "acquisition" could be had by the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals when Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright returns to their staff in 2012. They may or may not see King Albert return but, if he does not, one could argue that they might be better next season with Wainwright on the hill and Allen Craig's bat in the lineup every day. That's not to say any lineup is better off without one of the best hitter's of all time. It's only a thought that the hitting fall off wouldn't be as great as the pitching gain could be. Of course, saving 20+ million dollars per season the next 7-8 years on a hitter (ok, a Hall of Famer) in his thirties might not be the end of the world.

CC's return to the Evil Empire, while missing the frugality boat all together, was, at least in the near future, "Must see TV." Their customary 200 million dollar payroll would look rather foolish without a single #1 starter in the mix. Sabathia gives the Yankees an anchor, meaning quality innings, wins and leadership at the top. They may still kick the tires on a Japanese import (Darvish) and/or pursue Texas Ranger CJ Wilson but retaining the big lefty, who looks great in vertical stripes anyway, was the key to their off season.

Probably the 2011 contender most in need of pitching is Detroit. They have their ace, to be sure. After Verlander though, it's hard to imagine sustained success behind Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny or any other very average pitching candidate on their roster.

Scherzer has his moments. He also has his struggles. Plus, his delivery isn't exactly a poster for how to avoid arm woes. With Jacob Turner a possibility but probably a year or two away from seeing MLB success, maybe the Tigers should be pursuing CJ Wilson?

Given the pitching depth of the Phillies and Braves, Gallardo and Greinke in Milwaukee and the return of Wainwright in St. Louis, it's likely the National League will see the same playoff mix again in 2012. If the Giants find a lineup, they could certainly push past the Diamondbacks again but the league champion probably plays their home games in Philly, St. Louis, Milwaukee or Atlanta.

In the American League, it has to be the usual suspects. The Yankees will be there at least one more year. Eventually their fantastically dominant lineup of the last several years will show its wrinkles. They're aging across the diamond. We know Jeter and Alex are in their mid-thirties but did anyone realize Mark Teixeira will be 32 this April or that Robinson Cano will hit 30 in October? Have to love Robbie Cano. Yet, I always hear coaches predicting he will "win a batting title someday." He better get on that, as he turns 30 this year.

The Red Sox are turning a new leaf, with the departure of their Manager and General Manager. Odd to see, given they were pretty much every analyst's choice to win the pennant, if not the whole ball of wax, in 2011. Their 82-41 stretch, after a tough start in early April, didn't seem to indicate clubhouse issues of any sort either. Yet, in the world of "What have you done for me lately?," a September slide left Red Sox Nation questioning everything about their club. With Lester, Beckett and, hopefully, Clay Buchholz returning and their great ability to score runs, the Sawx should be just fine in 2012.

It has to be New York, Boston, Texas and probably Detroit leading the way next season, doesn't it? Anaheim has a shot if Weaver and Haren can duplicate their 2011 dominance. Tampa is always fun and certainly has pitching. It's just difficult to see either Anaheim or Tampa having the bats to beat the Yanks, Sox or Rangers if the favorites stay reasonably healthy.

While the Hot Stove window is unlikely to show us great pitchers moving on to new addresses, the few teams who would like to join the mix of favorites listed above can only hope the July trade deadline offers opportunity. Perhaps a Felix Hernandez or Zack Greinke could become available? Without any aces trading places in 2012 though, it looks like we'll see a repeat of the 2011 contenders again chasing the trophy.

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